West Virginia Population Projection


This projection uses the cohort component model in which each population cohort (by age and sex) is projected forward according to their age-sex specific survival and migration rates. The cohort of a newly born population is computed by applying the age-sex-specific birth rates to the survived female population and female in-migrants. People living in group quarters (dorms, prisons, etc.) are assumed to remain relatively constant or exhibit their own growth pattern. Regardless, the model assumes they maintain their age and sex distribution.

This projection utilizes records of births and deaths as well as population changes between 2000 and 2010 to gauge migration rates between the 2000 and 2010.  In addition, it utilizes other migration data from the the Internal Revenue Service tax-return files and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates to anticipate future migration trend.

The base population (by age and sex) is the April 1, 2010 population from the Census 2010 population count, based on which the July 1, 2010 population is estimated.  The projection shows July 1 population of every five year through 2035.

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